Since I'm not a big fan of costumes, I've not taken a closer look to this "Fortune Wheel" until now. The fortune wheel was introduced in Halloween with a free spin.1 I'm not sure if this "Free spin" was once per day or account but that was until November 8th, after that you have to pay per spin.2 As of right now, each spin cost 1,000 Soul Cash or $9.99 USD.3 The Fortune Wheel list below is based on the most recent update.4
Fortune Wheel Content & Value:
Things to keep in mind before reading:
Demand is based on:
1 - An *assumed* probably of a player needing to purchase said item with SC. So the more farmable the item is, the lower the demand.
2 - Substitutes that could replace said item, so for example HP kit can be arguably be replaced with normal HP from the NPC.
3 - Availability in the market. The more there is, the less its value.
4 - Demand of normal costumes(not limited) are hard to calculate without actual data.
Item List:
1. 1x Cookie Style A (Ambience) - Demand: N/A
2. 1x Cookie Style A (Furniture, Accessories, Decorations) - Demand: N/A
3. 1x Epic Avatar Outfit (Class Qube); not available to Iris - Demand: N/A
4. 1x Epic Avatar Accessories (Class Qube); not available to Iris - Demand: Low
5. 1x Charming Shots (Erwin, Fashion Qube) - Demand: Low-Medium(Free advancement costume could arguably replace)
6. 1x Shy Retribution (Haru, Fashion Qube) - Demand: Low-Medium(Free advancement costume could arguably replace)
7. 1x Swinging Axe (Lilly, Fashion Qube) - Demand: Medium
8. 1x Burning Fist of Passion (Jin. Fashion Qube) - Demand: Low-Medium(Free advancement costume could arguably replace)
9. 1x Song of Sorrow (Stella, Fashion Qube) - Demand: Low-Medium(Free advancement costume could arguably replace)
10. 1x Hammer of Rage (Iris, Fashion Qube) - Demand: Medium
11. 1x Wonderland (Fashion Qube) - Demand: Medium
12-13. 8x / 20x Akasha Transmitter - Demand: Low(Farmable)
14-15. 6x / 10x Hidden Akasha Transmitter - Demand: Low(Farmable)
16-17. 60x / 100x Weapon Upgrade Chip - Demand: Very Low(Farmable)
18-19. 60x / 100x Armour Upgrade Chip - Demand: Very Low(Farmable)
20-21. 6x / 20x Anti-Destruction - Demand: Very Low(Farmable)
22. 50x Bonus Keycard - Demand: N/A
23. Respawner - Demand: Very Low(Farmable)
24. 20x Improved HP Kit - Demand: Very Low(Substitute)
25. 20x Improved HP & SF Kit - Demand: Very Low(Substitute)
26. 2500x Grutin Gold - Demand: Very Low(Farmable)
27. 5000x Grutin Gold - Demand: Low(Farmable)
28. 20000x Grutin Gold - Demand: Medium(Equivalent to 40 anti-destruction)
JACKPOT LIST
Holy Set Class Qube - Demand: High
Grumbling Grutin 5-star - Demand: Medium
Big Plastica ( Not hidden) - Demand: Medium (Not Hidden, can be obtained through akanshas)
900g Grutins ( Not Hidden) - Demand: Medium (Not hidden, can be obtained through akanshas)
Golden Demon Wings - Demand: High
Holy costume Class Qube - Demand: High
Holy Weapon - Demand: High
Aurith Wings of the Gods - Demand: High
Grumbling Gruting 4-star - Demand: Medium
Steampunk(Class qube) - Demand: High
Tera (STD) Attack Brooch - Demand: Low(Events)
Tera (STD) efence Brooch - Demand: Low(Events)
Tera (STD) Effect Brooch - Demand: Low(Events)
SoulJustice Outfit - Demand: High
Nursery - Demand: High
Total "Jackpot" items: 15. Total "Normal" items: 28. Total Items overall: 43
Probability & Profitability:
So to do this I'm also going to assume that all items have an "equal" chance. If this is "straight RNG," Then it mean all items above are possible to obtain in one turn. If so, there is a 1/43 probability or 2.3% chance of getting one of the possible items. However, if it's not, it means that the actual chance is less or higher than 2.3% depending on the item. For the sake of value, it is likely that the valuable items have a chance lower than 2.3%, but this have not been confirmed.
Now, I'm going to assume that the main reason people spin the wheel are for the limited costumes and accessories. For the sake of profitability, decreasing the chance of the Jackpot items might yield more profit; however, for that to happen, the revenue of the wheel must be higher than sales of the limited costumes.
Considering that the player spins the wheel in the hope to get a desired result/item, it fall under the same category as gambling. The player might experience compulsive gambling(addiction) which will result in wanting to keep going.5 Considering this, it is possible to gain more revenue from wheel than directly selling it as the player will continue to spin until he get the desired item even though the chance might be less than 2.3%.
Possible reasons why a player might spin the wheel even though is cost $10 for a 2.3% chance.
1) The idea of getting the desired item for only 1,000SC when it would cost more. (Gambling)
2) Wanting to be "unique" as the limited costume would be considered rare since it's hard to get.
3) Profit. Obtaining the costume then hoarding it until it can be sold for a very high price. (When the costume is no longer available anywhere else)
4) Simply wanting the costume to decorate the character or add to the collection.
Feedback:
As you probably have seen, the players do not like this type of gambling.6 Even in the beginning of time this was not welcomed, look at the comment section.7 However, even with those feedback or comments this was continued. This is definitely considered as a negative considering you ignored your players feedback.
Conclusion:
I have also heard other players who had spun the wheel multiple times and considering the Fortune Wheel is still there, It must have been profitable. However, profit should not be replaced over quality service as this sacrifices consumer satisfaction. I don't think I need to cite any source for RNG as it has been highly disliked among players and it is also known as the "killer" of many games. This is especially true when you have to spend real money to obtain an item through RNG.
Even though cosmetics do not provide any notable advantage to the character, it does take advantage of the consumers as it cost $9.99 for a 2.3%( if all items have equal chance). It is also very likely for the player to get an item that can easily be obtained through the game without paying cash such as Weapon Upgrade Chips which will definitely decrease their satisfaction(Arguably a scam).
As RNG exist for the sake of profit and temporary satisfaction, it is considered morally wrong and should not be abused. If you are going to include RNG in limited costumes and other items, then do it fairly and at least provide items that have the same value, not less.
As a company you should know that reputation is one of the most important factor in business. A business with a good name will bring more consumers while one with a bad name will bring less consumers than usual. At this rate, you might have to change your name if the appropriate steps are not taken.