The gambling issue - Fortune Wheel.

  • Since I'm not a big fan of costumes, I've not taken a closer look to this "Fortune Wheel" until now. The fortune wheel was introduced in Halloween with a free spin.1 I'm not sure if this "Free spin" was once per day or account but that was until November 8th, after that you have to pay per spin.2 As of right now, each spin cost 1,000 Soul Cash or $9.99 USD.3 The Fortune Wheel list below is based on the most recent update.4


    Fortune Wheel Content & Value:



    Probability & Profitability:

    So to do this I'm also going to assume that all items have an "equal" chance. If this is "straight RNG," Then it mean all items above are possible to obtain in one turn. If so, there is a 1/43 probability or 2.3% chance of getting one of the possible items. However, if it's not, it means that the actual chance is less or higher than 2.3% depending on the item. For the sake of value, it is likely that the valuable items have a chance lower than 2.3%, but this have not been confirmed.


    Now, I'm going to assume that the main reason people spin the wheel are for the limited costumes and accessories. For the sake of profitability, decreasing the chance of the Jackpot items might yield more profit; however, for that to happen, the revenue of the wheel must be higher than sales of the limited costumes.


    Considering that the player spins the wheel in the hope to get a desired result/item, it fall under the same category as gambling. The player might experience compulsive gambling(addiction) which will result in wanting to keep going.5 Considering this, it is possible to gain more revenue from wheel than directly selling it as the player will continue to spin until he get the desired item even though the chance might be less than 2.3%.


    Possible reasons why a player might spin the wheel even though is cost $10 for a 2.3% chance.

    1) The idea of getting the desired item for only 1,000SC when it would cost more. (Gambling)

    2) Wanting to be "unique" as the limited costume would be considered rare since it's hard to get.

    3) Profit. Obtaining the costume then hoarding it until it can be sold for a very high price. (When the costume is no longer available anywhere else)

    4) Simply wanting the costume to decorate the character or add to the collection.


    Feedback:

    As you probably have seen, the players do not like this type of gambling.6 Even in the beginning of time this was not welcomed, look at the comment section.7 However, even with those feedback or comments this was continued. This is definitely considered as a negative considering you ignored your players feedback.


    Conclusion:

    I have also heard other players who had spun the wheel multiple times and considering the Fortune Wheel is still there, It must have been profitable. However, profit should not be replaced over quality service as this sacrifices consumer satisfaction. I don't think I need to cite any source for RNG as it has been highly disliked among players and it is also known as the "killer" of many games. This is especially true when you have to spend real money to obtain an item through RNG.


    Even though cosmetics do not provide any notable advantage to the character, it does take advantage of the consumers as it cost $9.99 for a 2.3%( if all items have equal chance). It is also very likely for the player to get an item that can easily be obtained through the game without paying cash such as Weapon Upgrade Chips which will definitely decrease their satisfaction(Arguably a scam).


    As RNG exist for the sake of profit and temporary satisfaction, it is considered morally wrong and should not be abused. If you are going to include RNG in limited costumes and other items, then do it fairly and at least provide items that have the same value, not less.


    As a company you should know that reputation is one of the most important factor in business. A business with a good name will bring more consumers while one with a bad name will bring less consumers than usual. At this rate, you might have to change your name if the appropriate steps are not taken.


    dddd

    Edited once, last by Silvery: Made list more readable. Adjusted some things. ().

  • That's a nice analysis. I made a mention about it in the thread I made.

    Honestly, I was surprised the wheel came in when there was an RNG box already. It kind of makes it.. redundant to have two types.


    One thing I worry about is yes people are still spinning, and as much as people plead others to not spin, it's going to happen which will continue to generate the negativity.


    Now whether I am mistaken for thinking a compromise would be a plausible workaround, in this case: spinning a # of attempts will let you choose the item, like a sparking system. I feel it would be a step in the right direction. I think of say.. Aeriagames that has a tiered system, which allows the player to eventually pick what they want.

    It would eliminate that idea that people would have to spend hundreds or even thousands and still not get the thing they desired.


    I mean in all actuality I would prefer them to put the costumes directly on the shop for sale, but the likelihood of that is rather slim (removing the wheel that is). There will always be people who have the gambling habits. So fighting on that is going to be an uphill battle.

  • ---------------------------------------------------


    0.416% to have Holy Set Class Qube in 1 spin.


    not 2.3% (Edit) if all items have equal chance ( and you missed prize like 2nd Wing is now 0.39% )



    And is not because your waifu is ugly you cant enjoy the game, just dont turn the w-hell

    사공이 많으면 배가 산으로 간다


    -The first one GF lover xoxoxoxo :saint:<3:love:

    Edited once, last by End ().

  • Now whether I am mistaken for thinking a compromise would be a plausible workaround, in this case: spinning a # of attempts will let you choose the item, like a sparking system. I feel it would be a step in the right direction. I think of say.. Aeriagames that has a tiered system, which allows the player to eventually pick what they want.

    It would eliminate that idea that people would have to spend hundreds or even thousands and still not get the thing they desired.


    I mean in all actuality I would prefer them to put the costumes directly on the shop for sale, but the likelihood of that is rather slim (removing the wheel that is). There will always be people who have the gambling habits. So fighting on that is going to be an uphill battle.

    This might be a good idea. Whether this is a good idea depends on the total spins you need. It doesn't have to be the same amount for all items either. For example:

    Holy priest: 4-5 spins

    wings :6-7, etc.


    That would not make the wheel bad if the # spins is reasonable for each item.

    As mentioned above, 2.3% for each item if the chance is spread equally; however, if it is not, then the jackpot prizes are expected to be less than 2.3%.


    I'm not sure how you got those numbers though? Can you elaborate?

    dddd

  • 1/16 to found Jackpot you want


    1/16 to get the jackpot


    1/16 * 1/16 = 0.00390625

    사공이 많으면 배가 산으로 간다


    -The first one GF lover xoxoxoxo :saint:<3:love:

  • 1/16 to found Jackpot you want


    1/16 to get the jackpot


    1/16 * 1/16 = 0.00390625

    This is the RNG-behind-RNG scenario. I was going to include it, but it seemed to be too confusing to understand. Instead I said if this isn't "Straight RNG," then it means it is much lower. However, It is still possibility.


    I don't think the math is right as it take 16(tries)/43 chance to get the item you want inside the jackpot. It is even more complicated when considered duplicates(not confirmed). They could be an item that was included more than once...

    dddd

  • Item List:



    1. 1x Cookie Style A (Ambience) - Demand: N/A

    2. 1x Cookie Style A (Furniture, Accessories, Decorations) - Demand: N/A

    3. 1x Epic Avatar Outfit (Class Qube); not available to Iris - Demand: N/A

    4. 1x Epic Avatar Accessories (Class Qube); not available to Iris - Demand: Low

    5. 1x Charming Shots (Erwin, Fashion Qube) - Demand: Low-Medium(Free advancement costume could arguably replace)

    6. 1x Shy Retribution (Haru, Fashion Qube) - Demand: Low-Medium(Free advancement costume could arguably replace)

    7. 1x Swinging Axe (Lilly, Fashion Qube) - Demand: Medium

    8. 1x Burning Fist of Passion (Jin. Fashion Qube) - Demand: Low-Medium(Free advancement costume could arguably replace)

    9. 1x Song of Sorrow (Stella, Fashion Qube) - Demand: Low-Medium(Free advancement costume could arguably replace)

    10. 1x Hammer of Rage (Iris, Fashion Qube) - Demand: Medium

    11. 1x Wonderland (Fashion Qube) - Demand: Medium

    12-13. 8x / 20x Akasha Transmitter - Demand: Low(Farmable)

    14-15. 6x / 10x Hidden Akasha Transmitter - Demand: Low(Farmable)

    16-17. 60x / 100x Weapon Upgrade Chip - Demand: Very Low(Farmable)

    18-19. 60x / 100x Armour Upgrade Chip - Demand: Very Low(Farmable)

    20-21. 6x / 20x Anti-Destruction - Demand: Very Low(Farmable)

    22. 50x Bonus Keycard - Demand: N/A

    23. Respawner - Demand: Very Low(Farmable)

    24. 20x Improved HP Kit - Demand: Very Low(Substitute)

    25. 20x Improved HP & SF Kit - Demand: Very Low(Substitute)

    26. 2500x Grutin Gold - Demand: Very Low(Farmable)

    27. 5000x Grutin Gold - Demand: Low(Farmable)

    28. 20000x Grutin Gold - Demand: Medium(Equivalent to 40 anti-destruction)



    JACKPOT LIST



    Holy Set Class Qube - Demand: High ~ ( 50% in 173 Try ) - ( 90% in 575 Try )

    Grumbling Grutin 5-star - Demand: Medium ~ ( 50% in 173 Try ) - ( 90% in 575 Try )

    Big Plastica ( Not hidden) - Demand: Medium ~ ( 50% in 173 Try ) - ( 90% in 575 Try )(Not Hidden, can be obtained through akanshas)

    900g Grutins ( Not Hidden) - Demand: Medium ~ ( 50% in 173 Try ) - ( 90% in 575 Try ) (Not hidden, can be obtained through akanshas)

    Golden Demon Wings - Demand: High ~ ( 50% in 173 Try ) - ( 90% in 575 Try )

    Holy costume Class Qube - Demand: High ~ ( 50% in 173 Try ) - ( 90% in 575 Try )

    Holy Weapon - Demand: High ~ ( 50% in 173 Try ) - ( 90% in 575 Try )

    Aurith Wings of the Gods - Demand: High ~ ( 50% in 173 Try ) - ( 90% in 575 Try )

    Grumbling Gruting 4-star - Demand: Medium ~ ( 50% in 173 Try ) - ( 90% in 575 Try )

    Steampunk(Class qube) - Demand: High ~ ( 50% in 173 Try ) - ( 90% in 575 Try )

    Tera (STD) Attack Brooch - Demand: Low ~ ( 50% in 173 Try ) - ( 90% in 575 Try )(Events)

    Tera (STD) efence Brooch - Demand: Low ~ ( 50% in 173 Try ) - ( 90% in 575 Try )(Events)

    Tera (STD) Effect Brooch - Demand: Low ~ ( 50% in 173 Try ) - ( 90% in 575 Try ) (Events)

    SoulJustice Outfit - Demand: High ~ ( 50% in 173 Try ) - ( 90% in 575 Try )

    Nursery - Demand: High ~ ( 50% in 173 Try ) - ( 90% in 575 Try )


    We need to spend ~875$ for get only 50% chance to have Nursery Outfit on equal chance.


    I dont think it's the case but is terribly insane if it was.

    사공이 많으면 배가 산으로 간다


    -The first one GF lover xoxoxoxo :saint:<3:love:

  • Just to make sure... These are all just in the wheel under Personal Fashion Cube or whatever. They don't have it separated if I remember.


    Not sure they can be considered separate % chance to obtain?

  • first, a <3 GM WISH <3 will be something i like to be added on Fortune Wheel

    whether it is given after x20-30 spins OR simply put it as one of the prizes


    second, do not split costume & weapon skin as separate prizes on Fortune Wheel


    third, include a stack of strength expansion (x3-5) on Fortune Wheel

    Lv65 [Soragear] Lv65 [SoraMetca] Lv65 [RemGareu]

    Biscuit Guild admin

    Tenebris Server

  • You have more chance to get it if they make split costume & costume + weapon.

    사공이 많으면 배가 산으로 간다


    -The first one GF lover xoxoxoxo :saint:<3:love:

  • So.. like the feedback i suggested on: A Growing Feedback Thread to Provide to the Soulworker Team for the Benefit of All

    o_o;


    A tiered spending on the spins or so

  • End

    hence, first on the list is <3 GM WISH <3

    by splitting costume & costume + weapon skin

    how much will they cost to buy in Dz amount!!

    40bil for costume, 40bil for weapon skin??

    who can afford that if not lucky enough to spin to win it!!

    Gameforge simply first needs to get rid of unwanted prizes in the pool

    do that and chances to spin costume + weapon skin increase

    Lv65 [Soragear] Lv65 [SoraMetca] Lv65 [RemGareu]

    Biscuit Guild admin

    Tenebris Server

  • Or improve methods of obtaining gold in game. I noticed the JP server had trophies that dropped from mobs which sell for increased amounts of gold...

  • They cost more than 300$ they dont gonna sell it for 4millions


    If you increase dz you increase price.

    사공이 많으면 배가 산으로 간다


    -The first one GF lover xoxoxoxo :saint:<3:love: