About new patch

    Quote from Keita

    You don't need a video to prove that .25% enhancement rate is terrible. It's pretty basic math.

    Literally disregarding strong data for your suggestion/feedback/argument just because it is not "needed." Assuming that the ones reading this, Gameforge and possibly Lion gates, share the same opinion of course.

    1) As far as I'm aware the actual percentage has not been disclosed

    2) Your math is flawed since you committed gambler's fallacy. % still a % regardless of how many attempts you take; a fixed percentage won't increase regardless of the number of attempts taken.

    3)I have never heard someone that took over 1,000 tries to upgrade to +9. Highest was 700, but that's merely what I've seen.

    4)It is true that it does not take a video to know if the upgrade system is terrible; however, we do not know the actual percentage and jumping into assumptions won't help us in any way. If they(Gameforge) do know the actual percentage and is not close to your claim, then there's a good chance they wont even consider your opinion since your claim is false.

    5)This whole "return on investment" thing is not as simple as you make it to be which is why I didn't bother to look at it, but lets continue with it since you seem fixated about it. Return on investment is the efficiency of a single investment(Formula: ((gain - cost)/cost)x100) and your claim indicates that the current profit(If cost = revenue) they are obtaining will be higher; however, you lack credibility for that claim. I do not see how this will help their business other than increasing the likelihood keeping players which take many more factors. Here are two ways the ROI can be read:

    5-1) If cost = profit/revenue, then the performance of this return will most likely be low since the sales of said items will decrease, thus decreasing profit.

    5-2) if cost = players, then the performance of this return might be decent since it will incentivize players to continue playing; however this is temporary considering the other possible issues such as lack of content. It takes more than upgrading to keep a player playing. This can be proven by taking a look at the steam chart: https://steamcharts.com/app/630100

    -On February 14th to 26, there was an upgrade event; however the playerbase still declined from beginning of February to end of it.

    -On march 14th to 28th there was another upgrade event however this after shortly after a new raid was added. Expectably, during the time, Soul worker gained players; however this decreased towards the end while the upgrade event was still running.

    -There is also something known as the "Doomloop" which will keep a person or company to continue to invest into something they have heavily invested on even though it does not yield profit. This principle can be applied to players, they will continue to invest into their weapon until they reach the desired upgradement(This does not apply to everyone of course). This alone will motivate some/most players to continue playing since they have an actual goal than having none


    Due to these reasons, I do not see how your claim alone can get through them. It requires more than just words. After all, I'm sure we know that a picture says a thousands words, a video says millions.

    dddd

    Quote from Silvery

    2) Your math is flawed since you committed gambler's fallacy. % still a % regardless of how many attempts you take; a fixed percentage won't increase regardless of the number of attempts taken.

    Honestly your entire post is full of crap (and you know it too) but this one point really ticked me off. I NEVER CLAIMED THAT % SUCCESS INCREASE PER ATTEMPT WITH MORE ATTEMPTS. My math is NOT flawed. It's how probability works. Everyone knows previous attempts don't increase the odds of the next attempt, but we can calculate the probability of at least one success over a number of attempts by the equation 1 - (chance of failure ^ number of attempts). So for someone who decides to do up to 100 attempts with .25% individual rate the equation would be 1 - (.9975 ^ 100) = 0.2214 or 22.14% chance to get +9 from +8 within 100 attempts.


    You understand this kind of math is exactly what LG/GF did when originally deciding base rates right? It's also the same math that was done when deciding the additional rates NPC loyalty was to give.


    The fact you don't understand this is enough evidence alone that you should probably stop posting. I'm serious. You still have offered literally nothing to the conversation. Everything you have said has been attempting to argue against valid complaints about the terrible upgrade rates and defend Gameforge at every turn. You don't want us discussing this topic anymore. It's obvious you just want us to shut up about it. Unless you work for them, I cannot understand how a normal person would be so dedicated to acting this way. Either way, it's pretty clear nobody in this thread is on your side of the argument.

    Edited 3 times, last by Keita ().

    Quote from Silvery

    This can be proven by taking a look at the steam chart: https://steamcharts.com/app/630100

    -On February 14th to 26, there was an upgrade event; however the playerbase still declined from beginning of February to end of it.

    -On march 14th to 28th there was another upgrade event however this after shortly after a new raid was added. Expectably, during the time, Soul worker gained players; however this decreased towards the end while the upgrade event was still running.

    If you think player gonna play because they give a +50% in a 0.5%~0.25 you totaly wrong.


    The only thing make ppl play is Big event : Like chrismas, and pre nerf Easter and New patch like AoV Primal etc..


    But ppl leave the game leave forever in 80%



    They fail since beta and they actualy try to stay a float, they lunch the game with no plan and now they gonna merge that proof of failure.



    And Silvery of course the forum is not representative of Soulworker but the most majority leave without giving a feedback and i dont think they leave because they are happy of the game.



    And in the case of upgrading you can make all argument you want, but all content we get since AoV is designed with the VIP NPC rate so if they dont give us the VIP bonus the game is just imbalanced.

    사공이 많으면 배가 산으로 간다


    -The first one GF lover xoxoxoxo :saint:<3:love:

    Gf doesn’t know math tho lol don’t use such smart way to explain why we need loyalty lolol they will keep skipping loyalty til all sw users eventually quit anyway.... then find another victim. Maybe lostark?

    Quote from Keita

    Honestly your entire post is full of crap (and you know it too) but this one point really ticked me off. I NEVER CLAIMED THAT % SUCCESS INCREASE PER ATTEMPT WITH MORE ATTEMPTS. My math is NOT flawed. It's how probability works.

    According to your table, 1000 repetition has a 91% probability of success. This is assuming that:

    -The repetition of that event increases.

    -all factors are the same every repetition

    By this logic, each repetition increases the probability of the event(success) happening which would imply that success or any other event is inevitable. If we apply this logic on another event we can see its flaw:


    For instance, considering each repetition is literally same, say that there's a 0.1 chance that I'll cause a car accident every time I drive.

    Then that would imply that in a 1000 drives(Again all possible factors are the same), I will inevitably cause an accident since the equation says so:

    1-(.9)^1000= 1 or 100% which is NOT true. Even though probability can calculate the *Overall chance* of an event occurring, it does not changes the actual chance of a certain event happening. In reality, each repetition STILL has 0.1 chance of happening regardless of how many attempts you take and the overall chance of x happening does not replace the actual chance, so it is possible to say that a person can go over 1000s tries attempting to +9.


    Again, I've been repeating myself that this won't get you anywhere; however, if you think that I have not contributed in any way(Which clearly I've been telling you that this kind of feedback is not enough), then I can't force you think otherwise. I don't understand how can you deny the possibility of strengthening your argument with more actual evidence, but if you think that's enough then best of luck to you. Not to mention that I did even make my own thread previously regarding upgrade which was totally overlooked.


    I'll be looking forward to how you get through them.

    dddd

    Silvery you're a troll. You're literally trying to claim that if I flipped a coin once or flipped a coin 5 times in a row the odds that I got at least one heads is still 50% (while calling it a fallacy that it is indeed much higher than the chance of a single flip). Everyone including yourself knows this is not true. With 5 coin flips the odds you get at least one heads is 1 - (.5 ^ 5)= 96.87% chance at least one of them is heads.


    Go on, flip a coin 5 times. Then repeat these 5 flips a whole bunch more (like at least 100 times, 1000 would be better) to get a really good sample size. With a large enough sample size you'll see that over 95% of every set of 5 is going to have at least one heads in it. So yes, we most certainly can assign probabilities to 'at least one success among n events'. These are literally entry-level probability math problems. Denying this just comes off as trolling.


    Anyway it's obvious you're not here for sincere reasons. Trying to derail this thread with side arguments is cute, but at the least you could have made a claim on something you were correct about instead of attacking probability 101 math. At this point I'm done responding to you because it's just causing us to get off-topic from the terrible enhancement rates that Gameforge refuses to fix.

    Quote from End

    And in the case of upgrading you can make all argument you want, but all content we get since AoV is designed with the VIP NPC rate so if they dont give us the VIP bonus the game is just imbalanced.

    Exactly. We're getting the same gear progression of the other servers, but our upgrade rates (at least for +9) are 1000% worse. Being 'imbalanced' is a great word to use to describe the situation. Ironically Gameforge tried to claim the NPC loyalty system would be "hard to balance" but in fact it's the lack of such system that's causing the real imbalances. At the very least they could have given us a toned down version of the system if they were afraid success rates would be too high. Instead we are stuck with 1000% worse rates.


    You know what else is imbalanced without the loyalty system? The actual costs of upgrades, the cost of crafting at Jenna, the cost of repairs from Xivus, the cost of items from Yumi's shop as well as the cost of helicopter rides in D6. Because most of the benefit of the loyalty system is upgrade rates a lot of people seem to forget what else this system affects. The reality is there's a lot more things imbalanced in our game than just the success rates, and this is all due to the lack of the NPC loyalty system that the game was originally balanced for because all other regions have it.

    Edited 2 times, last by Keita ().

    Quote from Silvery

    For instance, considering each repetition is literally same, say that there's a 0.1 chance that I'll cause a car accident every time I drive.

    Then that would imply that in a 1000 drives(Again all possible factors are the same), I will inevitably cause an accident since the equation says so:

    1-(.9)^1000= 1 or 100% which is NOT true

    LOL DUDE that's a 10% chance of crash per drive lmao nice math smart one

    That was almost painful to read.


    What that calculation is saying is that you will very likely crash if you drove 1000 times if the probability of crashing is 10% each time you drive. But the key is that every attempt is still 10% which is why you enter .9 in the calculation (for not crashing).


    You clearly don't understand what Gambler's fallacy is. If someone claims their 1000th attempt has a higher chance of crashing after 999 failed attempts, then that is Gambler's fallacy. However, that equation is describing the probability of crashing within 1000 attempts. Each attempt still has 10% chance, that never changed.


    Keita is right, you are wrong, End of story.

    Edited 4 times, last by FunStuff ().

    So I saw the moderator thread about the announcement and I just want to say thank you for listening to us it really does mean a lot. This is especially going to help the under-geared players who have been trying to catch up to their guildmates so they can finally farm current content together. Really happy to see GF making an attempt at listening to the community. Gotta give respect where it's due.

    You thank you early .... they wrote you, do not ask the god of the weather, ask for the harvest. We'll see if you will appreciate this update. At the moment, optimization has already become disgusting ... what will happen after the next update is difficult to say.