Price Index Thread (NA/EN)

    What did I say on April 10?

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    Don't keep DZ floating around if you take a hiatus. Better to use it all on ec, wuc, and now some premium shop items on MP
    Quote from Rin

    (NA)Can we do something about Weapon Upgrade Chips?

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    My main point is that you get zero economic profit from reselling, because dzenai is constantly losing its value (unless you literally were able to sell the entire stack at multiple times value- which is not possible unless there's an even larger injection of dzenai source of buyersf rom somewhere). Therefore, you should always keep dzenai in assets and a portion liquid to use for purchasing stuff.

    Quote from Bumluffa
    Quote from Awoo4399

    EN still holds the highest population unless there's a reliable chart that shows NA has more, never see NA green lately. Also the fact that the game is losing more players overtime and most are over-hyped by those new upcoming games. But look at those prices tho, 100% showing that NA has the most whale playerbase with those prices, I even refuse to buy 2m Weapon Upgrade Chips lol.

    Also no more gold spammers lately in Rucco town ch1-5 EN how about NA and other servers?

    what does a server being green have anything to do with population

    well ya make an interesting point. and people that dont know games well would probably be like "ohh yea hes right" but yea no. 1. gold sellers go where the money is. If your not seeing them then that means you guys are low on the gold buying list. which one might argue that means your population is lower.


    Cant run a business where there is no money to be made right? same for the gold sellers. The reason that the NA prices are higher is because of that. Lets be logical. If there are few players then who could pay the price? Well more specifically who could? That said Yea i think NA beats the EN as far a population. No charts needed. The prices are low there because no one can support it. Here people can grind 70-150 mil in one day (speaking for myself). It just depends on the day. So yea the prices seem crazy but ehh its about where it should be.


    Sadly it just sucks for newer players. But once they make some friends and figure out the system they will be big spending to haha.


    Incorrect. Best example is NYC vs. Houston, TX. NYC everything is basically 2x if not 3x in cost. Is it because their populations is low? :-). Not at all. Is it because there are not enough goods to go around? :-) Not at all. It is because the economy dictates it. Same goes for the game. Simplest way to explain it. To sum it up NA is NYC, and EN is Houston. You get the same goods and theres a crap load of people but the prices are waaaaaaay diff.


    As for the "showing green" ehh this game accuracy is lacking in my ways lol Honestly i would not see anything reliable in it being green or red. Especially considering they have a hard enough time keeping NA up in general.

    Quote from rj153
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    Incorrect. Best example is NYC vs. Houston, TX. NYC everything is basically 2x if not 3x in cost. Is it because their populations is low? :-). Not at all. Is it because there are not enough goods to go around? :-) Not at all. It is because the economy dictates it. Same goes for the game. Simplest way to explain it. To sum it up NA is NYC, and EN is Houston. You get the same goods and theres a crap load of people but the prices are waaaaaaay diff.


    uhhh.. I hope you realise that you can't compare game economy to real life situations, it's way too complicated IRL, game is simple as it is, all about supply, demand and amount of golds in-game, no laws, excise tax etc. which all exist IRL. I think you should start to think twice before correcting someone on something you don't really understand. :whistling:


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    As for the "showing green" ehh this game accuracy is lacking in my ways lol Honestly i would not see anything reliable in it being green or red. Especially considering they have a hard enough time keeping NA up in general.

    It's the game status, and don't say that NA or EU has more population than the rest, also gameforge started to block/lock accounts of players from other regions which is 50% of population. Basically would rather trust the game status shown(which shows EU turns green on peek times and NA stays white most of the time) than someone who just throw guesses right?

    Quote from Awoo4399
    Quote from rj153
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    Incorrect. Best example is NYC vs. Houston, TX. NYC everything is basically 2x if not 3x in cost. Is it because their populations is low? :-). Not at all. Is it because there are not enough goods to go around? :-) Not at all. It is because the economy dictates it. Same goes for the game. Simplest way to explain it. To sum it up NA is NYC, and EN is Houston. You get the same goods and theres a crap load of people but the prices are waaaaaaay diff.


    uhhh.. I hope you realise that you can't compare game economy to real life situations, it's way too complicated IRL, game is simple as it is, all about supply, demand and amount of golds in-game, no laws, excise tax etc. which all exist IRL. I think you should start to think twice before correcting someone on something you don't really understand. :whistling:


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    As for the "showing green" ehh this game accuracy is lacking in my ways lol Honestly i would not see anything reliable in it being green or red. Especially considering they have a hard enough time keeping NA up in general.

    It's the game status, and don't say that NA or EU has more population than the rest, also gameforge started to block/lock accounts of players from other regions which is 50% of population. Basically would rather trust the game status shown(which shows EU turns green on peek times and NA stays white most of the time) than someone who just throw guesses right?

    Wd8EyIM.png

    Numbers don't lie. Listings were 1.1K 45 days ago. Just need to wait for prime time to see # of listings of all concurrent goods which is proportional to number of offline users listings + online users listings - active purchases.


    Online user listings peak at prime time; restocking occurs most often during weekends prime time.


    General threads

    363 thread - 54% NA+EN

    68 thread - 10.2% DE
    96 thread - 14.4% ES
    79 thread - 11.9% FR
    25 thread - 3.7% IT
    32 thread - 4.8% PL

    663 thread

    We can probably segment by # of posts by NA vs EN users. Unlikely to be bias for regional likelihood of posting, simply proportions would give similar result.


    At low time (NA) we get 4% less listings than EN (near prime), now to compare 6-7PM prime time EN vs 6-7PM NA.

    Server Prime / Peak Low
    EN 592
    NA 605 569


    We can already tell that NA's raiding population is at least twice as large as EU.


    nGfBKA6.png

    Edited 6 times, last by Rin ().

    Its not relevant. postings have nothing to do with whats sold. And there is nothing you can do to show those numbers. A listing could be sold 5 mins after its out of the waiting period. (and for hot items that happens alot). I cant even count how many times i went to list something and waited 5 min and there had been others that started selling for more. Granted this is not like an Aion in its prime economy but its fast. Here is some fun for ya. If you think thats correct come list a Weapon chip for 8 mil and see how long it sits there lol


    I could not have said it better earlier. Its like comparing NYC to Houston. large populations just faster economy and more money to throw around. And its not fun sometimes because of that.....Its very very f'in hard to keep up with the prices rising. That's why your economy is stable. Its not a population thing its a money thing. The supply is here. its just why would you sell it for less when you know people have the money? it would not be logical.


    Also majority of those thread post are from NA more likely than not. How many damn times has our server been down/ characters going MIA / game crashing for absolutely no reason/ cash shop pricing issues/ not working. sighs.....No other server has as many issues as ours does. Hell honestly I had contemplated playing on EN but i just dont really feel to comfortable there. I made 2 toons while our server was down XD lol

    That is irrelevant.


    If a user underprices an item, and it gets sold fast, that means the market is liquid.


    In any market, the underpriced item will get sold. Therefore, since this effect is applicable both in EN and NA; it is meaningless in relative comparison as the conditions in both environment and assumptions remain true. Underpriced items won't get sold when users are not online to see it. However, the larger the fraction of users there are, the more eyes there are during non-peak times to buy it. Once and simply measure the distance time (listed vs sold) on an underpriced item during non-peak times and find the average minutes duration to make a casual inferral. However, this is not reliable.


    The total market index of all items has the lowest bias. One user can list many listings, but the fact is, many people don't. And nobody can list 500 pages of goods. Most people do not list 1 item by 1 item row after row of the same item unless they are selling multiple stacks of 999, and that is rare. Therefore, these assumptions hold true for both servers, and make it irrelevant as a point of contention.


    Furthermore, you can tell the listing times are different relative to each other, meaning these are individuals selling their items (some can contend that people play alts, but it is unlikely there is a large difference between NA and EN users playing alts to farm at X% vs Y%). Some people can do dungeons, then sell the same item - meaning 2 listings can occur for the same person. However, most people consolidate their listings because market listing is a prime estate, and carries a premium of 10 slots for non-VIP users.


    Listings expired do have a cyclical effect. If most listings are during prime time, then most listings should expire off of prime time's 24-48 hour cycle. Purchases are also highest at prime time, but we also know that purchases are not instant. The rate of listing items is always greater than the rate of people purchasing items, otherwise no items would exist on the market; the rate of listing items is equal to the rate of people purchasing items plus items delisted from expiry, and fractionally those who delist it to reprice it or give it to a friend- otherwise listings would grow forever.


    Listings are therefore, essentially, proportional to the number of users.

    Soulcash items are somewhat of an exception, since it is proportional to the number of paying users who need DZ.

    So therefore, the total market index has the lowest weighted bias towards any demographic fraction of the user base and can be used as an empirical base point of relative comparison of relative playerbase sizes.


    A difference of 20 pages is marginal. A difference of 100 pages or absolute percentage of 15% is significant enough to declare player size differences. Highly outsized items like WUCs cannot be used as a point of comparison because they are highly scarce and users are likely to use them at spontaneous times to buy them all up at once to +8 their weapon. While, other more stable low-purchase volume items like fragments remain relatively equal to their rate of purchase throughout the day- BPs are farmed, some take the chance of using them to craft, and then some frags get listed. Not everyone needs aurith gear, and thus it has a lower bias than WUCs or ECs, and is more indicative of server population size. Refineds also suffer from the same bias, but fragments do not because they always exceed the capacity of necessitance and are easily replenished, meaning a snapshot at any particular frame time of the day is representative of the pace of farming done on the server to produce such listings.


    On the other hand, there is significant weighted bias for GC fragments on smaller population servers, because very few can farm them - meaning scarcity drives the price more than inflation due to currency devaluation from number of active users playing the game. DE has 382 market pages for a point of comparison, or 32% less market volume; 1 user online is unlikely to produce 1 listing, as not everyone participates in the marketplace. However, the average number of listings per user is likely to be greater than 1 because everyone has 10-20 slots and inventory space capacity is extremely limited. From this, we can further infer a 1% decrease market volume beyond the 5% variational quantity is roughly proportional to a 0.36 ~ 1.1% decrease in player base size. DE's population is somewhere 11-36% smaller than EN and NA


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    GC Fragments are 1-player 1-listing biased, blue dungeon loots are not (1 player, multi-listings) are more likely due to (a) greater drop rate, (b) less utility (people prefer oranges over blues, and only 1 blue is needed). So a 1% decrease in volume for particular items does produce an effective 1% decrease in playerbase numbers at X fraction condition, while something like blue wolf gear could simply be a 1% decrease is a 0.05% decrease because there is only one level 24 character farming a particular dungeon that is listing all that gear. Low level items are a bad point of comparison because of the leveling pyramid inversion structure, with most users bypassing that level point and the non-homogenous distribution of purchases/listings; items of end-game nature, that are in excess reserve quantities, and are farmed and utilized at a consistent rate, are the best apples-to-apples comparison in terms of playerbase size using inferences from price levels (star cards). People do not get rare akashis easily, and they only use star cards when they need them, and these take up a lot of inventory space, making it difficult to hog (no reseller bias effects), and they drop at a consistent rate from qubes/boss drops.


    DE is 350k, EU/NA are 170k/330k roughly. This means EU/NA server size is roughly comparable; however NA pages has more listings still by a factor of 1.5 (2 pages).


    DE shows scarcity with lower listings, and higher price levels than EN.

    Either NA users farm more DZ and items per user, or there are more NA users than EN.

    My guess is that NA and EN population is roughly comparable, with one being 10% or so larger than the other; but the amount of users at end level being capable of farming DZ is much more than EN.


    So far all empirical observations support this hypothesis.

    In this triad of comparability, DE has lower listings, higher prices for end-game items, and no listings at all for certain items. EN has greater listings than DE, but lower DZ price levels because EN users do not farm DZ or buy DZ, or there are less users fractionally who are geared. NA users have greater listings than DE and higher price levels. FR has higher price levels than DE. ES has no WUCs at all with price levels being way lower than FR/DE/EN/NA.



    Hypothetical Server Distribution weighted by market volume cap

    Server Estimated Weekday Concurrent Peak Population Base Estimated Weekday Active Users Data
    NA 26% (923 Steam+ 330 Standalone) 1,500 605
    EN 25% (875+ 300 Standalone) 1,400 598
    DE 16% (560 + 210 Standalone) 1,000 380
    FR 14% (490+ 150 Standalone) 820 334
    PL 7% (245+ 60 Standalone) 530 139
    ES 6% (210+ 50 Standalone) 470 119
    IT 6% (210+ 50 Standalone) 470 114



    Still need data on how many users on average use standalone clients.

    Edited 20 times, last by Rin ().

    you still cannot show me how fast it sold though......thats why i said there was nothing you could say. which was rather cheep of me. by the way im a buyer irl so...i deal with accountants that like to see numbers. sometimes there are none when they want them :-). i like ya though haha

    I agree with pretty much everything, but, what time do you do your tests ?


    Have a nice day / evening

    ~ Le cœur peut être faible, parfois même il peut se soumettre. Mais j'ai appris qu'au fond de lui, il y a une lumière qui ne s'éteint jamais ! ~

    ~ The heart may be weak, sometimes even it may submit. But I learned that deep inside him, there's a light that never goes out ! ~

    We can't allow them to control our thoughts and memories forever.

    Nous ne pouvons pas leur permettre de contrôler nos pensées et nos souvenirs à vie.

    NA has it worst cause there are many bots = tooo much dz in game and new player just buy gold and shit on the market already and gameforge is not doing anything about bots or gold saler or buyers in general. a perma ban would be nice or finding/ creating a system wich check what poeple doing everyday and if they do the same thing over and over again trading always the same amount of gold to multiple persons like 100mill in this case. i see on en server wich market is getting worst and worst now in All chat/selling gold 100m/5.5dollar in 1 sec hmm its not easy to find gold seller and perma ban them or there Id right so they never can enter the game to destroy the market.

    Quote from madozan1

    NA has it worst cause there are many bots = tooo much dz in game and new player just buy gold and shit on the market already and gameforge is not doing anything about bots or gold saler or buyers in general. a perma ban would be nice or finding/ creating a system wich check what poeple doing everyday and if they do the same thing over and over again trading always the same amount of gold to multiple persons like 100mill in this case. i see on en server wich market is getting worst and worst now in All chat/selling gold 100m/5.5dollar in 1 sec hmm its not easy to find gold seller and perma ban them or there Id right so they never can enter the game to destroy the market.

    It is up to you, as a player, to fight the bots while waiting for a solution proposed by GameForge.

    As a reminder, GameForge has already tried to block bots, without success.
    Waves of bans are already made sometimes.

    Cordially,

    Sato

    ~ Le cœur peut être faible, parfois même il peut se soumettre. Mais j'ai appris qu'au fond de lui, il y a une lumière qui ne s'éteint jamais ! ~

    ~ The heart may be weak, sometimes even it may submit. But I learned that deep inside him, there's a light that never goes out ! ~

    We can't allow them to control our thoughts and memories forever.

    Nous ne pouvons pas leur permettre de contrôler nos pensées et nos souvenirs à vie.

    omg thats alot of time ya put in there lol but yea who knows. not like NA is up 100% of the time like the other servers anyways. I think that has caused more harm to gf than anything. No one wants a game they cannot play...

    Quote from Satoru
    Quote from madozan1

    NA has it worst cause there are many bots = tooo much dz in game and new player just buy gold and shit on the market already and gameforge is not doing anything about bots or gold saler or buyers in general. a perma ban would be nice or finding/ creating a system wich check what poeple doing everyday and if they do the same thing over and over again trading always the same amount of gold to multiple persons like 100mill in this case. i see on en server wich market is getting worst and worst now in All chat/selling gold 100m/5.5dollar in 1 sec hmm its not easy to find gold seller and perma ban them or there Id right so they never can enter the game to destroy the market.

    It is up to you, as a player, to fight the bots while waiting for a solution proposed by GameForge.

    As a reminder, GameForge has already tried to block bots, without success.
    Waves of bans are already made sometimes.

    Cordially,

    Sato

    yea and no. gold sellers show up where there is a market. That is all. No matter what the punishment people will still buy gold or attempt to in mmos. The other guy is wrong though. Because if the drop rates for items with good stats were higher the price would be lower. As proven with other sets. A price cannot be high if the drop rate is high. Just not going to happen.


    That said people are creating a market based off of that. Will it change? hell if i know but ehh it is what it is. All that can be done is farm harder and earn more gold. GF could try to do something however It like in anyother mmo is fairly limited. So not sure what is expected for them to do. Where there is a will there is always a way. That goes for the gold sellers and the cash shop item sellers.


    The economy is as it is not just due to the gold sellers its a community as a whole.

    I should have just edited my other post but ehh to lazy. This all goes back to what i said. Its not an issue about whether or not an item is available its about how much gold there is to spend. NA is the lord and god of gold. So yep prices are stupid. Should it be? ehh who knows. However it is. AS I stated before NA is like NYC and everyone else ( has been downgraded) Alabama XD.


    What you should have showed in your prices is Weapon Upgrade Chips. That item your going off of is to cheap XD just sayin >.>. At a low i farm 20 a day. Those items there are like ehh 1 chip can buy like 13 ....

    Updated the index.


    The average price increase is 23% on NA across all items, excluding solace refined fragments.

    100 DZ 15 days ago can buy you 80 DZ of goods today.


    The fastest appreciating assets are soulcash at 45% or more increase, followed by SGVIPs and WUCs at around 29.31% and 20% appreciation respectively. Armor cores could also be counted as doubled over the course of the month. ECs dropped due to NA's advanced population capabilities in farming BP on world boss and raids, which are indicative of a more geared population. However, SC is rising as SC sellers are less available, and inflation has been slowing down due to a lower circulation of DZ.


    The average price increase is 96% on EN across all items, excluding solace refined fragments.

    100 DZ 15 days ago can buy you 50 DZ of goods today.


    The fastest appreciating items are WUCs at 143% price increase and SGVIPs at 100% price increase on EN due to the initial low price (greater percentage change on lower denominators), and also due to high consumption rate due to the population distribution centered around level 55.

    Edited once, last by Rin ().