Price Index Thread (NA/EN)

Quote from Bumluffa

Quote from Vitae

Quote from Rin

Quote from JasonTodd

WUC on EN server is 10kk now, bye
Converters 80kk, bye
Converters drop chance is a sh*t, Fragments prices are sh*t, everything about farming raids is a sh*t.
Gameforge does not create conditions for the inflow of new players let alone old ones. If goldsellers will live on and the prices on server will grow but rewards for raids will be 5 alarm piece of sh*t, i have no doubt that there will be no 60 lvl and all advancements on that localisation because what? Because online will be low(it is low now actually) and maintenance of servers will not be profitable for Gameforge.

Look at the Steamcharts, guys, instead of a thousand words!

It is not 10m. People buying it to resell it on the same day will have a lot of problems, especially 50% over current market price. Just try doing it yourself. Eventually, it will get to 10m. You will find yourself out of DZ and bagholding a lot of chips until it reaches that point.

Farming is not shit. What is shit are the RNG rates for upgrading. You can spend $2,000+ or 250+ hours in a month and have it all fail while the next guy to you who is completely F2P, only recently got to level 55 can +1 to +9 in 50 attempts.

EN is experiencing rapid inflation due to standardized gold bot rates.

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Well it's not just that, I personally know people who are purposefully inflating the market and have made billions out of doing so

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Because this thread has finally given them a written excuse to where people look at the inflated prices, refer back to this thread and can accept it and keep buying at the new inflated prices

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Price perception is irrelevant within the context of the market economy, since you can see the price history in game anyways.

Honestly, you people are just too funny. At 2,000 active players farming per month at maximum capacity of 10m DZ/day, or 300m/month, that is 600 billion. There were more players at the beginning, so we can roughly add another 1.6 trillion for the first two months of the game. Bot farming is likely more than responsible for at least 80% of the excess DZ, which would add another 6.4 trillion DZ to the economy. I find it hard that you people can imagine DZ being pulled out of thin air and lalaland grants individual players the capability to buy up the entire market infinitely, everyday, non-stop, when DZ is constantly farmed at a faster rate by bots than the number of items generated by players.

Do I think there are 2,000 hardcore level 55 players with VIP farming DZ? No, so obviously the proportion of DZ farmed by bots is even greater than this.

If you gave everyone in real life $1mil, what would happen to the price of assets?

Game life mirrors real life, with the fraction of all DZ owned by the top 2% dwarfing the bottom 30%. Since the top DZ owners are in no order : DZ bot buyers, DZ SC whales and DZ merchants. The first class being the richest as they can spew out 100 billion at a time buying up every WUC in sight. DZ SC whales on average have 3-20 billion DZ, and DZ merchants 2-20 billion DZ. All this DZ in circulation is simply a reflection of price levels increasing, as none of it is destroyed, while WUCs are constantly used. This thread did not exist before then, and the price of WUCs went from 10k to 10m DZ, so your point is just as moot.

Not only that, but you contend that prices immediately spiraled upwards when I made this thread (after 3 weeks) - when you can see prices stabilizing whenever DZ levels were stabilized as mirrored by gold bot rates staying the same for those period of weeks. The proportion of users visiting forums, and checking this spread specificially, is minute, and quite frankly- insignificant. Even if these were the 'top asset' buyers, someone with excess DZ would of bought it either way just to +8 their weapon.

For a point of reference, costumes were 3m on release and the average player could farm 2-4m on ark ship per day (DZ wise) until rookie raids. Bot prices were roughly $0.83/mil at the time.

I skipped updating prices for two days just to see the effects, and prices still increased across the board.

Quote from Bumluffa

1) I'm not going to pretend you're stupid enough to think even close to the full amount of 2000 active players are farming their capacity of 10m dz per day. So I'll just ignore that little made up statistic you provided there for your own benefit

2) you still haven't provided proof of the prevalence of bot farming other than simply saying it exists and is a problem. Conversely I do several alts on a weekly basis and have never noticed characters with randomised "bot" names entering low level dungeons in all my time doing them.

3) wucs did not go from 10k to 10m prior to this thread on EN. This happened on NA where you had your own even more severe whale problems causing that inflation. Prior to this thread wucs had been stable at ~2-2.5m for WEEKS. My whole argument at this point has been this thread affecting prices on EN not NA where this thread has been a a catalyst for whales to accelerate the natural inflation to NA levels

You must not be able to have reading comprehension or something.

You make an absurd argument about players farming a large amount of DZ responsible for inflation, and then you counteract that argument by saying players don't farm enough DZ to generate that DZ to inflate prices to these levels, and hence, bots by induction are responsible for most of the DZ inflation. Did you just defeat your own argument? Who knew that arguing from In logic, reductio ad absurdum (Latin for "reduction to absurdity"; also argumentum ad absurdum, "argument to absurdity") is a form of argument which attempts either to disprove a statement by showing it inevitably leads to a ridiculous, absurd, or impractical conclusion, or to prove one by showing that if it were not true, the result would be absurd or impossible - invalidated your point.

Here you go for point 2)

I was here since inception of day 1, so please don't try to fan me with your 'hurr durr no evidence' statement.

Whales cannot catalyst for shit, buddy. According to your broken brain logic, whales on day 1 can buy up WUCs to infinite DZ and relist them for 500m EACH and some greater fool can buy them because they think the price will rise faster - when I fricking just asked where the DZ came from and just gave you an explanation on how much DZ you need to FARM individually over a course of a MONTH to even be able to buy that without DZ circulation or alternatively BUY FROM SOME EXTERNAL SOURCE.

I love it that you guys are blaming me for causing inflation when I am dismantling your arguments one by one at a time; WUCs destroyed after they are bought from consumption, DZ remains behind - thus DZ circulation increases.

Now look at KR, completely linear. DZ may be increasing in supply, and players in KR have WAY better farming abilities with Raids giving up to 500k/DZ per dungeon. However, bots are severely hampered by not having access to easy SSIDs and telephone numbers. WUCs are decreasing in price or mostly stable because consumption is slower, while DZ spawning is also slower, and DZ destruction is also higher.

If you cannot understand the simple concept of giving everyone more DZ on the server, and hence make it more favourable to purchase WUCs at lower price, and hence cheaper to hoarde/use for future use - thus a systematic design flaw of the game, in combination of poor technical measures of preventing DZ influx from bots - then I don't what to say. Everyone here has brain damage from imagining DZ pouring from the sky into individual player's hands letting whales buy at infinity power when even you admit players aren't hardcoring at that large fraction of the playerbase farming in DZ, and hence that DZ couldn't appear out of thin air to increase prices this fast. And with the evidence of DZ rates of bots decreasing rapidly over the last 15 days mirroring my chart, and with EN WUC prices going from 5k to 2.5m before the instance of my thread - I don't know what to say. I give up, people just have too much brain damage to comprehend monetary supply.

Do you see whales spamming selling SC on the server enough to generate billions of DZ?

Do you see whales spamming outfits in the server for DZ?

Do you see them spamming soulcash items?

They do not, and hence, how do you get so much DZ in a short period of time without farming for 2-3+ months, non-stop, on VIP, on multiple alts.

A friend of mine, exclusively, resells SC hair colors and furniture on NA; but the remainder on the market? They are outfits, and they are barely 300-700m combined each. That can barely let you inflate prices to 50m per WUC or some astronomical value.

I just explained to you over the course of this thread, the evolution of bot prices decreasing rapidly and how it mirrors my chart in price level - but alas, it is lost on you because price is an imaginary concept of people being able to buy stuff and resell them for higher at infinite levels without consuming any DZ, and players can just farm 100 billion DZ in a day to do this all day, every day - without external help or aids. Totally makes sense. 10/10. Quality logic.

Yes, I read point 3 of your argument;

Oh yes, NA is a special server that is distinct from EN and is insulated from inflation effects, and so is every other server (not).

I listed prices for NA and EN, and these prices rose for all servers (italy), before my thread, and after my thread. That totally means that I was responsible

for speculation asset price appreciation, and not the silver and gold VIP 2hr 23min listings you see on the market which took away listing taxes, that was 100% me (its not even listing fee, its sales fees, which lets people list with impunity LOL). And somehow $70 per 1000mil to $15 per 1000 mil doesn't mean more buyers. Mhm.

Yes, you absolutely are monitoring every channel 24/7 at all times when they are in the dungeons for 99.999% of the time with maybe 2-3 seconds maximum standing outside

a dungeon or selling items to NPC or putting them on the market.

Yes, these people are secretly conspiring en masse to generate weird names to make people hard to add them as friends to fool you.

Yes, the VIP gameforge official for customer relations in the gold bot problem thread of suggestions in English was lying about scripted logins.

I gave you a theoretical foundation for assessing the relationships between price, price level, money supply, time constraints, rational actor interests and

everything you could possibly need to see the established links in determining the key factors of the phenemenon before your eyes, but you choose to ignore it.

Just what can I do to make you understand the nature of the problem and be convinced :

- Retrieve bank statements from DZ buyers of DZ gold bot sites

- Physically buy a plane ticket and travel to one of these prominent sites, ask for their volume transaction sales, and get a mandarin translator to interview

them on camera about why they are doing this and how they are generating this DZ (circulating increasing amounts of DZ into the economy & selling items on market)

- Privately skype call gameforge officials and ask them statistical data on bot behaviour, their prominence and implementation of technical measures to slow them down

- Retrieve version history prices of all other versions, compare all possible circumstances in which prices can be affected, and every other MMO to date to

give a fair comparison to SW; or even real life

- Provide an equation for you in terms of money supply, money velocity and inflation

- A unitary price curve of $/WUC $/EC in relative parity terms over the course of SW, and how it always stabilizes at $0.45 per WUC and $3 per EC which translates to 33M at equilibrum price today for WUCs

- Get the top 25 players consensus in terms of gear level, gear score, farming capability potential on each server and ask them how the majority of them got to where they are (as F2P or whaling) and whether DZ sellers had any role in this

The pervasiveness of these DZ sellers has gone to :

- Spamming megaphones (they did not do this as often 35-50 days ago) due to the nature of their profitability

- Fake selling SC at cheap rates and getting you on their mailing list for DZ

- Selling costume sets at norway standalone client SC rates, with $0.50-$0.70 profit margins because people can't buy the most expensive packages

- Using the circulating DZ into the economy that they farmed to their advantage by selling other high liquidity items, and making players buy that back to circulate DZ back into them

- Changing character names, mass proxying and diluting specialization delegation roles, senders, farmers, routers, spammers to increase operational efficiency and mamximize profit

And you still have never addressed the principle of speculators gaining infinite DZ and being able to buy ever increasing amounts of asset out of nowhere on point 3. Point 1 is irrelevant because you already admitted players can't be responsible for farming so much DZ. Point 2 was contended with and revoked the moment I gave you screenshots of other players taking notice starting in March/April. Speculation doesn't stop Dt Z supply even with a 10% listing fee. It just means you just have to wait until bot prices go to $10 per bil or $5 per bil and then everyone says 'wow I can farm EC and get 400m, lets go upgrade my wpn +7 kthxbye 40m wucs" which gives you a 1:10 ratio from WUCs to EC. Notice how BOT PRICES decreases first, and then ASSET prices rise; especially on NA at 1-3 AM. For EN, no idea- since this would be 8AM, so you would see these effects ratify even faster.

I already conceded the points to you in which the problems can be addressed from GF PoV and their relative success levels and subsequent consequences;

limiting DZ production

increasing DZ destruction

decreasing DZ circulation

increasing Upgrade/RNG success rates

increasing drop rates

changing monetization schemes to route $ into other things than DZ

putting items back into CS market to defer DZ purchase due to decreased value, SS stays, WUC/EC doesn't.

If none of this changes your stance, then I give up; apparently there is nothing left to talk about in this discourse and people will just continue to think speculators erroneously spawn infinite DZ to purchase things infinitely, and that that exact proportion of the population is visiting this thread day by day to get the 'correct' price for their items and list them and that I am a moses of price determiner; I say 50m = everyone buys at 50m LOL (I stopped updating prices for 48 hours). But whatever, forget about line of reasoning and logical induction, let people think what they want to think.

Maybe one of these days, you can try relisting costumes for 999m and see if they sell or not (not limited edition), because I certainly didn't have any success. F2P cannot catch up with DZ buyers in terms of farming. If people could get the same amount of DZ buying in $ for costume due to price changes, then they might as well be buying from gameforge. If DZ is cheaper, and SC sellers are abundant, then they would rather buy from SC sellers - but obviously you don't see SC sellers spamming because they are rational. The only ones who don't comprehend the nature of DZ (gear/WUC/ECs) are sub level 55s, new level 55s and those with so much $(20k-100k expenditure/year) on game that a difference of 30% gains on DZ return per $ means nothing to them; and these exact people are selling SC items below market rates (1:250 ~ 1:320 on NA).

I would love to see you put this into action and relist things for 100% above the current price, and see how well it does when g-bot prices are the same for 7-10 consecutive days. Utility items will always predominate and be purchased (see how their rate of increase in absolute terms is greater than the relative terms of cosmetics per DZ wise over %), and WUC/EC are volatile exactly because of this. There is simply no choice. Either buy, or wait for more DZ to circulate, and buy at higher price. There is no such thing as profiting from flipping because eventually you have to buy these items at a higher price when DZ supply is higher, and population levels are lower for farming these items. Nobody can grow their DZ 40% week over week non-stop. Population stability and population decay is slowest around n time, which spans 1-2 years for the F2P MMO. And is highest for the first two to six successive months depending on the relative localization capabilities and host teams success in appeasing its players, further confounding the fact by compounding player accrued currency preventing and creating a barrier for further players to do high-time sink investments for minuscule returns. Good days when cosmetics 3/4m and can be farmed in one day; the same extent can be said today if you RNG well - but it is harder to do so. (That period never lasted, and cosmetics jumped to 30M in 1.5 weeks and 100M-200M in 1 month and 400-800M in 3 months - which EN is tracing due to a lagged monetary supply from higher $/DZ rates at beginning due to lack of competition[the eva of second gold bot caused fierce DZ price drops for last 15-24 days])